Blog Entry

Wrong time for Mets to deal Wright

Posted on: November 6, 2011 6:44 pm
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David Wright

By C. Trent Rosecrans

The hot stove sometimes takes a little while to warm up and the first couple of weeks of November are often more of a lukewarm stove -- and the kindling that is a David Wright rumor shouldn't stoke the flames too much.

On the surface, it's the type of rumor that should draw newspaper headlines -- the Mets "listening" to offers on Wright, the fallen star in New York. Sure, the Mets will obviously listen on offers for Wright, they'd be fools not to listen -- especially with a number of teams needing a third baseman.

The Angels, Cubs, Phillies and Rockies could all be searching for a new third baseman. So could the Brewers, Marlins and Tigers. Wright won't be 30 for another year and he already has four All-Star Games, two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers on his mantle. There will always be a demand for a player like Wright -- especially in a free-agent market that has just one top-flight third baseman available.

The problem is, now is certainly not the time for the Mets to deal him -- listen, sure, but not pull the trigger. You don't sell low, and right now Wright is low, lower than he's ever been. He's coming off his worst offensive season of his career, hitting just .254/.345/.427 with 14 home runs and missed 58 games due to a stress fracture in his lower back. His 102 games played were the fewest since his rookie year of 2004 when he was called up after the All-Star break. Anyone taking Wright now is doing it for a steal -- and salary relief for the Mets.

A National League executive told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that Mets general manager Sandy Alderson would have to be "bowled over" to deal Wright this winter. That's unlikely to happen.

Wright will make $15 million in 2012 and the Mets have a $16 million option with a $1 million buyout for 2013. Wright can void that option if he's traded, making him little more than a rental if he's traded during the season. That would hurt his value at the deadline, but nothing like the questions surrounding his health and recent production coming off his pedestrian 2011.

Despite the talks of Wright being on the market, the Mets first move for 2012 was a giant flashing sign saying they'll keep Wright. Last week the team announced that not only will they move the walls in at Citi Field, they'll also lower them. The changes, whether the Mets will say so or not, are meant to help Wright.

In the three seasons since Citi Field opened, Wright has hit just .279/.377/.449 with an average of just more than seven home runs a season at home. At Shea Stadium. Wright hit .318/.403/.555 and averaged 29 homers per season from 2005-08, with at least half of those coming at home. The most he's hit in a season at Citi Field is 12, when he hit 29 total homers in 2010.

"You'd be lying if you said you enjoyed hitting at Citi Field," Wright told ESPNNewYork.com last week. "I don't think anybody would say they enjoyed hitting in such a pitchers' ballpark. I don't think we ever looked at the field and it intimidated us. But obviously it's frustrating at times when you hit a ball good and you don't see the results that you want to see." 

Of course it's not just Wright, Citi Field allowed just 1.43 home runs per game, the lowest in the majors over its first three years. Other Mets can benefit (notably Jason Bay), but the Mets could benefit the most from an increased offensive output from Wright. If Wright flourishes in the new park, then his stock could would be much higher than it is now. If he doesn't put up significantly better numbers, that trade value is unlikely to change from where it is now.

Wright can still be one of the premier third basemen in baseball, but right now he's a .254 hitter with 14 homers -- that with a $15 million price tag doesn't bring back elite prospects. If Wright finds the new Citi Field to his liking, he can be an impact player for the Mets -- and their future. Wright won't be a Met forever, but he should be one on opening day.

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Comments

Since: Feb 26, 2010
Posted on: November 7, 2011 4:54 pm
 

Wrong time for Mets to deal Wright

Piss off Dookfoot- this isn't an advertising banner! Take your knock off sneakers and beat it!! 



Since: Mar 10, 2010
Posted on: November 7, 2011 3:30 pm
 

Wrong time for Mets to deal Wright

Has to be one of the MOST OVERRATED PLAYERS IN MLB ? explain to me what this guy has won and why he gets so much attention ? His teams that he is the " captain " always underperform and fall short ... he has a HIGH K rate average defender ? overrated  besides that ok cool 



Since: Sep 3, 2006
Posted on: November 7, 2011 2:27 pm
 

Wrong time for Mets to deal Wright

itsouthere, a couple of points in response to your post:


1) I am no fan of the Wilpons either, but Bernie Madoff had little to do with a flawed team blowing a seven game lead with 17 to go in 2007, or blowing a four game lead in the wild card race late the following year.  At that point, most Mets fan couldn't tell you who the guy even was.  Those teams were put together by Omar Minaya, and yes it was precisely his fault.   More to the point, having seen that group fail twice, it was certainly his fault that he didn't think outside the box and try to redo the mix of a team that had demonstrated two years in a row an inability to get it done when it truly mattered.  In fact, I doubt Omar even knew he was in a box.  The core of the team should have been redone then instead of waiting for Delgado and Beltran to get old.


2) I happen to like both Reyes and Wright.  I don't think my post at all judges Wright on the basis of an injured year last year, and in fact argues that season is not an indicator of his true value and that a savvy GM might be open to dealing for him in spite of 2011.   What I did was point out flaws that too many Mets fans overlook.  David has never been a big hitter with runners in scoring position and he just does not make enough contact.  He didn't strike out 300 times in 2011, he did it in 2009 and 2010, in two seasons in which he combined to hit 42 homeruns.   Does that make him a bad ballplayer?  Not at all.  What it does make him is a guy with flaws who may never be the guy that Mets fans envision getting a mega return for in any trade.   I wouldn't be brokenhearted if he stays.   But given he is already set to make 15 million a year in 2013, at what price?   He better be the guy who can bring this team back from the dead if they decide to pay him moving forward.


3) As for Reyes, at this point it isn't about getting rid of him since he is no longer Mets property.  It's about making a reasonable offer.  Unless one accepts that he has suddenly morphed into a guy who is going to hit .337 every year, his primary asset is his speed.   So what length of deal do you offer him?  Frankly I think anyone going more than five years especially at  the megabucks likely to be offered is likely to wind up questioning that decision six or seven years down the road when the best of Reyes' talent has deserted him.


4) I too have been a Mets fan since 1968 and share your pain.   I particularly felt it on June 15, 1977, when the Mets foolishly dealt Tom Seaver, arguably the greatest pitcher of the 20th century, for four guys who never amounted to anything.    Wh
ile I agree in principle with what you say, mentioning either Wright or Reyes in the same sentence as Seaver is a bit of overkill.   While they are likely to both have very nice careers, at this point the only way either ever gets into Cooperstown to take a look at Tom's plaque is to buy a ticket.    &nbs
p;   




Since: Sep 3, 2006
Posted on: November 7, 2011 2:26 pm
 

Wrong time for Mets to deal Wright

itsouthere, a couple of points in response to your post:


1) I am no fan of the Wilpons either, but Bernie Madoff had little to do with a flawed team blowing a seven game lead with 17 to go in 2007, or blowing a four game lead in the wild card race late the following year.  At that point, most Mets fan couldn't tell you who the guy even was.  Those teams were put together by Omar Minaya, and yes it was precisely his fault.   More to the point, having seen that group fail twice, it was certainly his fault that he didn't think outside the box and try to redo the mix of a team that had demonstrated two years in a row an inability to get it done when it truly mattered.  In fact, I doubt Omar even knew he was in a box.  The core of the team should have been redone then instead of waiting for Delgado and Beltran to get old.


2) I happen to like both Reyes and Wright.  I don't think my post at all judges Wright on the basis of an injured year last year, and in fact argues that season is not an indicator of his true value and that a savvy GM might be open to dealing for him in spite of 2011.   What I did was point out flaws that too many Mets fans overlook.  David has never been a big hitter with runners in scoring position and he just does not make enough contact.  He didn't strike out 300 times in 2011, he did it in 2009 and 2010, in two seasons in which he combined to hit 42 homeruns.   Does that make him a bad ballplayer?  Not at all.  What it does make him is a guy with flaws who may never be the guy that Mets fans envision getting a mega return for in any trade.   I wouldn't be brokenhearted if he stays.   But given he is already set to make 15 million a year in 2013, at what price?   He better be the guy who can bring this team back from the dead if they decide to pay him moving forward.


3) As for Reyes, at this point it isn't about getting rid of him since he is no longer Mets property.  It's about making a reasonable offer.  Unless one accepts that he has suddenly morphed into a guy who is going to hit .337 every year, his primary asset is his speed.   So what length of deal do you offer him?  Frankly I think anyone going more than five years especially at  the megabucks likely to be offered is likely to wind up questioning that decision six or seven years down the road when the best of Reyes' talent has deserted him.


4) I too have been a Mets fan since 1968 and share your pain.   I particularly felt it on June 15, 1977, when the Mets foolishly dealt Tom Seaver, arguably the greatest pitcher of the 20th century, for four guys who never amounted to anything.    Wh
ile I agree in principle with what you say, mentioning either Wright or Reyes in the same sentence as Seaver is a bit of overkill.   While they are likely to both have very nice careers, at this point the only way either ever gets into Cooperstown to take a look at Tom's plaque is to buy a ticket.    &nbs
p;   




Since: Nov 7, 2008
Posted on: November 7, 2011 1:34 pm
 

Wrong time for Mets to deal Wright

Move this guy to a more hitter friendly park like Wrigley and he would instantly get his numbers back.  The Cubs should make a run at him, if they can muster up enough decent prospects for him without giving away the farm.  It would be a repeat of the Ramirez trade from a couple years ago that pushed the Cubs into contention for a couple years before Hendry ran the team into the ground.  

 



Since: Nov 7, 2011
Posted on: November 7, 2011 1:14 pm
 

Wrong time for Mets to deal Wright

If the Mets get rid of Reyes and Wright.  Why bother watch them or go to there games?  THEY WOULDN'T BE WORTH A TICKET AND NY SPORTS NET WOULD BE WORTHLESS!  The team should be sold to someone who can be competitive to the Yankee's, Red Soxs and Phils in the Northeast Market.  It wasn't Omar who hurt the Mets.  It was the Wilpon's association with and working with Bernie Madoff and their funds being tied up in court. They should sell the team and not hurt "there loyal fan base." I've been a Met fan since they started, I don't want to go over the trading of Tom Seaver, again, for three players with no talent.  It It'sworth the money of admission to see Reyes play even for a non contending team.  Judging David Wright on a season with a bad back remember he played several weeks injured before going on the DL, and missing 52 games, is unfair.  Both players are hitting there "their best years of their career's, they were to be the Mets:  Derrick Jeter, Mickey Mantle, who were home grown player and stayed with one team there whole career.
The Wilpon's approved the original design of Citifield, Shea wasn't a hitters park either (remember Bobby Mercer's complaint the two years the Yankees played there).  The Wilpon's should get over their hype of the Dodgers and Giants, they are long gone, and have few fan's left in the Metro Area.  The Mets will have a mass exodus of fan's if they trade Wright, and don't resign Reyes.  Major league baseball will lose its creditability if they let this happen. Although Major League baseball hasn't worried about their creditability since they fired Bowie Kuhn.



Since: Sep 3, 2006
Posted on: November 7, 2011 12:22 pm
 

Wrong time for Mets to deal Wright

Players often become available on the market precisely because they are coming off bad years.  Perhaps not so much now in an era of mega-salaries, but in years past unproductive years were often precisely why players often became available in the trade market.  The fact is while a player's value can be somewhat suppressed by a bad year, general managers do not function in the same world that fans do and usually have a strong take on a player's actual value.  Just because Wright is coming off a less than productive year does not mean the Mets will be selling short if they deal him.  The question is what exactly his value is.   I know we are often as guilty as any as Mets fan of overhyping the value of our own players.   In a good year, Wright is a good source of power and speed, but he has never been a strong clutch hitter and he strikes out entirely too much.   And his defensive reputation is totally overblown, with his Gold Glove a couple of years ago being one of the most overt examples of the absentee voting that goes on with that award in recent memory.  Fact is he is a very solid ballplayer.  A mega-star?  In spite of his high ranking in fantasy magazines every spring, I think not.


Having said that, there is little chance the Mets are going to re-sign Reyes once someone's front office/ownership foolishly starts throwing around sixth and seventh years at  18-20 million per for a guy with balky hamstrings who by then will have seen the speed that is his biggest asset disappear along with his prime. A reasonable deal with Reyes at five years and about 80 million tops is never going to bring him back to New York in 2012.  And it may be more than the fan base can tolerate to see Wright go as well in the same off-season.   With the fences in next year, there is good chance he returns to his solid form of the past, although this makes sense only if the Mets are committed to holding onto him long term.  Because  Wright's ability to void the team option for 2013 if traded pretty much compromises his marketability beyond this offseason.   What is required of the Mets is a solid plan that lays out sound objectives that result in this team returning to competitiveness.  Which is exactly what was lacking after 2008, when the core of this team should have been dismantled by the clueless Omar Minaya after two epic failures and Carlos Beltran alone could have brought back three solid talents before his knees went south.  That Sandy Alderson was able to snag a pitching talent the likes of Wheeler for Beltran as a three month rental gives me enough confidence in his leadership.  The fact is, Mets fans may not like it at all, but if dealing Wright can bring back a young centerfielder the likes of Peter Bourjos and an young arm or two from a team like the Angels, the time might just be right to move David.  If not, fine, but the price to retain him moving forward if he does hit next year is going to be awfully expensive for a guy who while popular and talented, has yet to show the ability to be the guy who can put this team on his back and return it to respectability.



Since: Nov 6, 2007
Posted on: November 7, 2011 10:33 am
 

Wrong time for Mets to deal Wright

tommy teabagger,
Ohh ownership is why david wright hit 14 homers and batted .250 last year. o.k got it.



Since: Nov 6, 2007
Posted on: November 7, 2011 10:31 am
 

Wrong time for Mets to deal Wright

Not sure the market is that hot for a 15 million dollar power hitting third baseman that hits  15 homers and bats .250


dookfoot
Since: Nov 5, 2011
Posted on: November 7, 2011 10:29 am
This comment has been removed.

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